Date:2026-04-15
Although the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations failed to make breakthroughs and the US announced a blockade of the relevant waters, actual shipping dynamics indicate that passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not experienced a "complete interruption." Vessel tracking data show that within the first window after the blockade took effect, multiple oil tankers still chose to traverse this globally critical energy chokepoint, reflecting a delicate balance in the market between high-pressure policies and real transportation demand.
According to Reuters, citing a notice issued by the US military to seafarers, the blockade covers the Arabian Sea area east of the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. The notice states that any vessel entering or leaving the relevant waters without authorization may face interception, rerouting, or even seizure. The blockade officially began at 14:00 GMT on April 13 (22:00 Beijing time), marking a highly sensitive phase in the regional shipping environment.
However, real-time data suggest that passage has not completely stalled. ShipView data from China COSCO Shipping show that on April 13, the total number of vessel transits in the Persian Gulf was only 10, including 1 container ship, 0 crude oil tankers, 4 refined oil tankers, 0 LNG carriers, 2 LPG carriers, and 3 other vessels; 4 entered and 6 exited, representing a sharp week-on-week decline of 56.52% and an even higher year-on-year decline of 90.48%. These figures, on the one hand, confirm the significant impact of the blockade on market sentiment and capacity scheduling, and on the other hand, indicate that while shipping activity is restricted, it has not completely frozen.
At the vessel level, the four refined oil tankers that transited that day were the ELPIS (35,775 DWT, outbound), AUROURA (47,999 DWT, outbound), NV SUNSHINE (54,975 DWT, inbound), and NEW FUTURE (49,990 DWT, outbound).
On April 14, signs of transit continued. By 17:00, three more oil tankers had completed passage: PEACE GULF (49,999 DWT, inbound), MURLIKISHAN (29,524 DWT, inbound), and RICH STARRY (36,031 DWT, outbound). AIS information shows that PEACE GULF is heading to Hamriyah Port in the UAE, expected to arrive on April 15; MURLIKISHAN is bound for Iraq’s Khor Al Zubair Port, expected on April 16.
Among this group of vessels, the route of RICH STARRY is particularly indicative. Since the blockade took effect, it became the first vessel to complete a full journey of "entering the Persian Gulf and then exiting again." AIS tracking shows that it entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on April 4, anchored south of Dubai, and resumed its voyage on April 13, successfully exiting the Strait at 08:00 on April 14. This process somewhat confirms that although the current passage environment is tightening, it has not evolved into a substantial "closed blockade."
From a more macro industry perspective, the current situation in the Middle East is showing a structural shift from being "conflict-driven" to "game-driven." The market generally assesses that the probability of large-scale escalatory military conflict is relatively controllable, especially direct attacks on energy infrastructure or key ports, whose spillover costs are too high and do not align with the real interests of the main players. However, it should be emphasized that this assessment does not equate to risk elimination; misjudgments, accidental engagements, and unilateral actions by regional actors still constitute typical sources of tail risk, sufficient to significantly amplify freight rates and insurance premium volatility in the short term.
On the political level, the continuation of the ceasefire is considered the more likely path. Currently, parties are more inclined to extend temporary arrangements to gain time for negotiations. This "maintain stability while negotiating" pattern means that the ceasefire itself has a clear transitional attribute, rather than being a long-term institutional arrangement. In the shipping market, this translates to high sensitivity to news — any progress in negotiations or sudden incidents will quickly affect freight rates and shipowners' decision-making.
Regarding the negotiation path, industry consensus expects the US-Iran game to enter multiple progressive stages. The blockade measures previously announced by Trump were closer to tools for pressure and bargaining rather than final policy endpoints. Within this framework, subsequent negotiations are likely to shift from testing the bottom line to technical issues and eventually move into the stage of interest exchange. However, this process is also highly dependent on external variables, including security event disruptions and the US domestic political cycle, both of which could have nonlinear impacts on the negotiation pace.
The nuclear issue remains the core focus of the entire game. Current differences between the US and Iran on the timeline essentially represent a typical negotiation anchoring mechanism, with final results likely to reach a compromise within a middle range. From a practical perspective, the threshold for using nuclear weapons is extremely high, with their deterrent significance largely reflected in "existence," as demonstrated in the Russia-Ukraine war. In comparison, control over the Strait of Hormuz is a more practical strategic tool, which can directly affect the global energy transport chain and has a lower usage threshold. This also explains why the market generally believes Iran may show a degree of flexibility on the nuclear issue.
Further extrapolating, the passage mechanism of the Strait of Hormuz itself may become part of future negotiations. For Trump, pushing Iran to make concessions on nuclear issues has clear political benefits, while the rights of passage through the strait are more likely to be restructured through technical arrangements, such as strengthening actual control, introducing transit fees, or establishing a gray regulatory mechanism. Once this framework is implemented, the core variable in the shipping market will shift—from "whether passage is possible" to "at what cost passage occurs."
Overall, the current situation is closer to a stage of "wrapping up but not ending." The logic of conflict is giving way to the logic of negotiation, but the process will still involve repeated bargaining and emotional disturbances. Against this backdrop, the pricing mechanisms in the shipping market are also undergoing profound changes: the marginal risk of extreme disruptions is decreasing, but the risk premium has not disappeared; it is gradually being transformed into premiums arising from passage costs and institutional frictions. It is foreseeable that in the coming period, the main trend of volatility in the oil tanker market and even the overall shipping market will follow this pattern.
Source: Haiyun Circle Focus
Article link: https://www.gjkdwl.com/news/meiguoguojikuaidi-85256.html
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